Monday, May 28, 2018

Want to Join the 401(k) Millionaires Club? Here's How

We hear a lot about how Americans on the whole aren't saving adequately for retirement, but clearly, there are plenty of outliers. In fact, the number of workers with $1 million or more in their 401(k) plans jumped to 157,000 at the end of this year's first quarter, according to Fidelity. That's a 45% increase from one year prior.

Of course, there are certain factors that fueled this accumulation of wealth. For one thing, the stock market had a killer 2017, which no doubt boosted balances hovering near the $1 million mark. Furthermore, Fidelity reports that many of the aforementioned 401(k) millionaires have been saving for a solid 30 years.

Man counting 100-dollar bills

Image source: Getty Images.

Still, it just goes to show that with a nice amount of effort, it's possible to amass $1 million and retire comfortably as a result. If that's the sort of goal you have in mind, here's how to get there.

1. Start saving early in your career

Many younger workers think of retirement as a far-off milestone that doesn't demand their immediate attention. But the fact of the matter is that the longer you give yourself to save for the future, the greater your chances of accumulating $1 million -- or whatever personal goal you have in mind.

Currently, you're allowed to contribute up to $18,500 a year to your 401(k) if you're under 50, or $24,500 if you're 50 or older. Most people, however, can't afford to part with anywhere close to that amount of money each year. But if you start saving early enough in your career, you can get away with setting aside much less month after month. Check out the following table, which shows what a modest $300 monthly contribution might grow into depending on the length of your savings window:

If You Start Saving $300 a Month at Age:

Here's What You'll Have by Age 70 (Assumes an 8% Average Annual Return):

25

$1.39 million

30

$932,000

35

$620,000

40

$408,000

45

$263,000

50

$165,000

55

$35,000

Table and calculations by author.

As you can see, if you commit to saving for the bulk of your career, you can turn a series of $300 monthly contributions into well over $1 million. Even if you miss the boat early on and don't start saving for almost a decade, you can still get pretty close. But the longer you wait, the more money you'll need to part with each month to have a shot at that $1 million -- and the more you risk coming up short when retirement rolls around.

2. Take full advantage of your employer match

If you're lucky enough to have a 401(k), you probably have a chance to get your hands on some free money for it. That's because an estimated 92% of companies that sponsor 401(k)s are willing to match employee contributions to some degree.

The problem? Roughly 25% of workers don't contribute enough to snag that match, thereby leaving a cumulative $24 billion on the table in unclaimed 401(k) dollars. On an individual level, that translates into $1,336 of lost money each year.

If you're serious about reaching millionaire status in your 401(k), you must make a point of putting in enough money each year to claim your employer matching dollars in full. Remember, too, that when you pass up any amount of free money each year, it's not just that principal you're giving up; you're also denying yourself its associated growth.

Imagine you forgo $1,336 a year over a 10-year period because you don't contribute enough to get your match, and then retire 20 years after that point. All told, you'll have missed out on over $90,000 when we factor in potential earnings on that lost money (assuming an 8% average yearly return on your investments).

3. Invest your savings wisely

You may have noticed by now that we've applied an 8% average return on investment to our different calculations so far. The reason for that 8% is that it's just a bit below the stock market's average, which means it's a pretty fair benchmark for projecting returns. But what happens when you shy away from stocks and invest more conservatively instead? It's simple: You lower your chances of retiring a millionaire.

Imagine you're able to sock away $300 a month over a 45-year period, only you play it safe and snag an average annual 4% return instead of 8%. In that case, you'd be looking at an ending balance of $436,000, which is a lot less than $1.39 million. Though stock investments do carry some risk, if you have a 10-year window or longer before retirement, you'd be wise to put your money there. Not only will you have a decent amount of time to ride out the market's ups and downs, but you'll also most likely score higher returns that do the trick of growing your wealth.

Retiring with $1 million or more often boils down to saving consistently and making smart investment decisions. Cover yourself in both regards, and if all goes well, you'll be on your way to joining the ranks of the proud 401(k) millionaires who get to look forward to retirement.

Friday, May 25, 2018

As Emerging Markets Sell Off, the Biggest One's Doing Just Fine

Within a chorus of warnings about the threats facing emerging markets, little is being said about the largest of them all.

And with everything else that’s going on, why would you worry about China? Stocks are up this month in Shanghai, the yuan is at a two-year high against a basket of peers, and bonds are about as prized relative to Treasuries as they’ve been since 2016. A similar picture exists outside of financial assets, with the economy growing at a steady clip and domestic demand supporting imports -- including from emerging peers.

That’s the sort of stability that’s been hard to come by in some developing markets, where even superfan Mark Mobius sees more pain to come.

Yet the country isn’t immune to what’s afflicting investors from Buenos Aires to Ankara. The People’s Bank of China has been following the Federal Reserve (albeit at a slower pace) with higher interest rates; a deleveraging campaign is another form of tightening that risks slower growth and more corporate defaults; and an unpredictable trade war with the U.S. poses a threat to exports and economic confidence.

“China’s financial markets are enjoying support from strong fundamentals and they are not that sensitive to global volatility," said Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities in Hong Kong. “The biggest latent risk to the markets is the trade war, which I don’t think is going to be simple to resolve."

For more on emerging-market jitters:
Lira Gets No Relief From Erdogan as Hike Fails to Stem Drop 
Emerging-Market Rout Has Traders Caught In a Grim Feedback Loop
Krugman Joins Chorus of Doomsayers on Emerging-Market ‘Crisis’

China offers a shelter partly thanks to capital controls, which were tightened to stem a rush of outflows in 2015 and 2016. Investors in the nation’s stock market -- the world’s second-largest -- are forced to use highly regulated channels via Hong Kong’s exchange or are limited by state-set quotas. The yuan is tied to a daily reference rate set by the central bank.

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The biggest developing economy is also a rapacious consumer of everything from semiconductors to soybeans, and a key customer of its emerging peers.

Last year, China imported 13.1 percent of all goods exported by emerging economies, just below the 13.8 percent shipped to the U.S. It has trade deficits with countries including South Korea, Brazil, and Malaysia. And President Xi’s silk road initiative is a $500 billion trade and development project with spending that spans more than 70 economies including South Africa, Russia, Egypt and Indonesia.

“China’s steady growth and markets are benefiting emerging markets," said Ken Peng, an investment strategist at Citi Private Bank in Hong Kong.

But like many others, Peng sees a hurdle ahead: the Fed’s a sure bet to raise rates in June and keep tightening from there.

The end of easy money in the world’s largest economy will drive up borrowing costs around the world and support the dollar, raising the specter of capital outflows. Beyond the drama of the emergency rate hikes in Argentina and Turkey, the Indonesian central bank is stepping into markets to support the rupiah. Foreign reserves in India and the Philippines are dwindling.

“It is not that China has solved everything, but the main issue now is the U.S.," said Arnab Das, the head of emerging-market macro at $934 billion money manager Invesco Ltd. in London. Still, “China is always very important to watch as we have a very large economy rapidly evolving and changing.”

— With assistance by Aline Oyamada, Justin Villamil, and Xiaoqing Pi

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Tuesday, May 22, 2018

Best Bank Stocks To Own Right Now

tags:GOL,HCP,UPS,ECA,HMNY,TEP,

Liberum Capital reaffirmed their buy rating on shares of FirstGroup (LON:FGP) in a report issued on Tuesday.

A number of other equities analysts have also recently commented on FGP. Deutsche Bank reduced their price target on FirstGroup from GBX 100 ($1.36) to GBX 90 ($1.22) and set a hold rating for the company in a report on Thursday, February 22nd. Royal Bank of Canada reduced their price target on FirstGroup from GBX 110 ($1.49) to GBX 95 ($1.29) and set a sector performer rating for the company in a report on Thursday, February 22nd. Canaccord Genuity reiterated a hold rating and set a GBX 110 ($1.49) price target on shares of FirstGroup in a report on Wednesday, February 21st. HSBC reduced their price target on FirstGroup from GBX 125 ($1.70) to GBX 90 ($1.22) and set a hold rating for the company in a report on Monday, March 19th. Finally, Shore Capital reiterated a buy rating on shares of FirstGroup in a report on Wednesday, February 21st. Eight equities research analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating and four have assigned a buy rating to the company. FirstGroup presently has an average rating of Hold and an average price target of GBX 127.82 ($1.73).

Best Bank Stocks To Own Right Now: Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes S.A.(GOL)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Max Byerly]

    Gol Transportes A茅reos (NYSE:GOL) shares traded down 5.4% on Monday . The company traded as low as $9.72 and last traded at $9.75. 524,965 shares traded hands during mid-day trading, an increase of 40% from the average session volume of 374,811 shares. The stock had previously closed at $10.31.

Best Bank Stocks To Own Right Now: HCP, Inc.(HCP)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Matthew Frankel]

    Healthcare real estate investment trust HCP (NYSE:HCP) hasn't exactly been a high-performing stock recently. In fact, while the S&P 500 has risen 26% over the past two years, HCP has fallen 23%.

  • [By Ethan Ryder]

    Swiss National Bank decreased its position in shares of HCP, Inc. (NYSE:HCP) by 13.1% in the first quarter, Holdings Channel reports. The fund owned 1,499,221 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock after selling 226,400 shares during the quarter. Swiss National Bank’s holdings in HCP were worth $34,827,000 as of its most recent SEC filing.

  • [By Benzinga News Desk]

    U.S. banks are rolling in so much dough they are begging regulators to let them return to the days of risky proprietary trading — all the while stiffing their interest-starved customers, critics say: Link

    ECONOMIC DATA April Chicago Fed National Activity index 0.34 vs 0.48 expected The Treasury is set to auction 3-and 6-month bills at 11:30 a.m. ET. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic is set to speak at 12:15 p.m. ET. Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker will speak at 2:15 p.m. ET. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkariis set to speak at 5:30 p.m. ET. ANALYST RATINGS KeyBanc upgraded Alteryx (NYSE: AYX) from Sector Weight to Overweight Stifel upgraded Knight-Swift (NYSE: KNX) from Hold to Buy Evercore downgraded HCP (NYSE: HCP) from In-Line to Underperform Evercore downgraded Vereit (NYSE: VER) from Outperform to In-Line

    This is a tool used by the Benzinga News Desk each trading day — it's a look at everything happening in the market, in five minutes. To get the full version of this note every morning, click here.

  • [By Reuben Gregg Brewer]

    The aging baby boomer generation is set to materially increase demand for senior housing. The question isn't if but when because the demographic shifts this giant generation will engender are largely unavoidable. Investors looking at the senior housing sector have a number of options to pick from, with two of the biggest names in the space being HCP, Inc. (NYSE:HCP) and Brookdale Senior Living, Inc. (NYSE:BKD). But what's the better choice here: the property owner or the facility manager?

Best Bank Stocks To Own Right Now: United Parcel Service Inc.(UPS)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Shane Hupp]

    Court Place Advisors LLC grew its stake in shares of United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS) by 49.5% during the 1st quarter, according to the company in its most recent disclosure with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The firm owned 6,910 shares of the transportation company’s stock after buying an additional 2,287 shares during the period. Court Place Advisors LLC’s holdings in United Parcel Service were worth $723,000 at the end of the most recent reporting period.

  • [By Timothy Green, Neha Chamaria, and Rich Smith]

    There are some companies, though, that have better shots than others at continuing to thrive over the next 12 years. These companies have durable competitive advantages that are unlikely to vanish, making their stocks safer than most. Here's why you should consider Mastercard (NYSE:MA), United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS), and Boeing (NYSE:BA) if you're looking for safety.

  • [By Logan Wallace]

    Here are some of the headlines that may have effected Accern Sentiment Analysis’s analysis:

    Get United Parcel Service alerts: Global Aviation MRO Logistics Market 2018-2022 with DB Schenker, Deutsche Post DHL Group, FedEx & United Parcel Service Dominating – ResearchAndMarkets.com (markets.financialcontent.com) [$$] New York City to Reduce Discounts on Parking Tickets for Commercial Vehicles (finance.yahoo.com) Courting Atlanta: Hawks rehab basketball courts to teach kids teamwork (Photos) (finance.yahoo.com) U.S. Postal Service Q2 loss widens to $1.3 billion, while revenue rises (finance.yahoo.com) United Parcel Service (UPS) to Issue Quarterly Dividend of $0.91 (americanbankingnews.com)

    Shares of United Parcel Service traded up $1.46, hitting $115.45, during mid-day trading on Friday, MarketBeat Ratings reports. 3,388,147 shares of the stock were exchanged, compared to its average volume of 4,510,974. United Parcel Service has a twelve month low of $101.45 and a twelve month high of $135.53. The stock has a market capitalization of $95.98 billion, a P/E ratio of 19.21, a P/E/G ratio of 1.67 and a beta of 1.02. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 14.84, a current ratio of 1.22 and a quick ratio of 1.22.

Best Bank Stocks To Own Right Now: Encana Corporation(ECA)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Matthew DiLallo]

    Today, however, many drillers are setting a high bar for new wells. EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) has been one of the leaders in disrupting the former way of thinking by establishing a high return hurdle rate for new wells of 30% after-tax at $40 oil. Others followed with similar return-focused approaches, including Encana (NYSE:ECA), which needs locations to achieve a 35% after-tax return at $50 oil to meet its premium hurdle rate.�

  • [By Max Byerly]

    Here are some of the news stories that may have effected Accern Sentiment’s rankings:

    Get Encana alerts: Encana Corp (ECA) Rising Higher 7.95% Over the Past Four Weeks (fisherbusinessnews.com) Encana Corporation (ECA) Most Active Stock Price trades 19.10% off from 200- SMA (nasdaqchronicle.com) Mid-Day Movers ��: Encana Corporation (NYSE:ECA), CSX Corporation (NASDAQ:CSX), MGIC Investment Corporation … (journalfinance.net) Featured Stock: Encana Corporation (ECA) (stockquote.review) Active Stock Evaluation �� Encana Corporation (NYSE: ECA) (financerater.com)

    ECA has been the subject of a number of research analyst reports. Morgan Stanley raised shares of Encana from an “equal weight” rating to an “overweight” rating and upped their price target for the company from $15.00 to $18.00 in a report on Wednesday, January 24th. Evercore ISI raised shares of Encana from an “in-line” rating to an “outperform” rating and upped their price target for the company from $10.84 to $16.00 in a report on Wednesday, March 7th. Zacks Investment Research downgraded shares of Encana from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating in a report on Wednesday, January 31st. Scotiabank raised shares of Encana from a “sector perform” rating to an “outperform” rating and upped their price target for the company from $13.00 to $14.00 in a report on Friday, February 16th. Finally, Goldman Sachs cut their price target on shares of Encana from $17.25 to $14.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a report on Friday, April 13th. Two analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, two have given a hold rating, twenty-two have given a buy rating and one has issued a strong buy rating to the stock. The stock presently has a consensus rating of “Buy” and a consensus target price of $15.28.

  • [By ]

    Already, shale companies such as Encana (ECA) , Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) , among others, are reporting higher cash flows and earnings on higher oil prices. As a result, they are paying down debt, increasing dividends and engaging in buybacks. This is a dramatic improvement in shareholder yield for the group.

Best Bank Stocks To Own Right Now: Helios and Matheson Analytics Inc(HMNY)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Lisa Levin]

    Check out these big penny stock gainers and losers

    Losers Aceto Corporation (NASDAQ: ACET) fell 41.9 percent to $4.30 in pre-market trading. ACETO board disclosed that it is taking proactive steps to address business and financial challenges. Canaccord Genuity downgraded Aceto from Buy to Sell. Helios and Matheson Analytics Inc. (NASDAQ: HMNY) fell 25.3 percent to $2.86 in pre-market trading after reporting an ATM offering of $150 million. Pier 1 Imports, Inc. (NYSE: PIR) fell 17.4 percent to $2.86 in pre-market trading after reporting a fourth quarter sales miss. Comps were down 7.5 percent in the quarter. Sleep Number Corporation (NASDAQ: SNBR) fell 12.4 percent to $32.00 in pre-market trading following a first quarter earnings miss. Paratek Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: PRTK) fell 10.2 percent to $11.90 in pre-market trading on news of $125 million convertible debt offering. Merrimack Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: MACK) shares fell 8 percent to $8.02 in pre-market trading after dropping 2.02 percent on Wednesday. Exponent, Inc. (NASDAQ: EXPO) shares fell 5.6 percent to $80 in pre-market trading. Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: LITE) shares fell 4.8 percent to $60.00 in pre-market trading after rising 1.78 percent on Wednesday. vTv Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: VTVT) fell 4.6 percent to $2.10 in pre-market trading after surging 84.87 percent on Wednesday. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE: TSM) shares fell 4.5 percent to $40.07 in pre-market trading after the company reported Q1 results. Align Technology, Inc.. (NASDAQ: ALGN) fell 3.5 percent to $267.40 in pre-market trading after rising 1.61 percent on Wednesday. Transocean Ltd. (NYSE: RIG) shares fell 3.5 percent to $12 in pre-market trading after the company issued quarterly fleet status report. GoPro, Inc. (NASDAQ: GPRO) fell 3.2 percent to $4.90 in pre-market trading. Unilever PLC (NYSE: UL) fell 2.6 percent to $54.73 in pre-market
  • [By Lisa Levin]

    Shares of Helios and Matheson Analytics Inc. (NASDAQ: HMNY) were down 40 percent to $2.29 after pricing public share offering.

    Sears Hometown and Outlet Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ: SHOS) was down, falling around 29 percent to $2.30. Sears Hometown and Outlet Stores reported a Q4 loss of $1.46 per share on revenue of $395.77 million.

  • [By Lisa Levin] Gainers Check-Cap Ltd. (NASDAQ: CHEK) shares rose 78.82 percent to close at $7.26 on Monday. GEE Group, Inc. (NYSE: JOB) shares jumped 18 percent to close at $2.36. McDermott International, Inc. (NYSE: MDR) climbed 15.7 percent to close at $7.00 after the UK-based offshore oil service company Subsea 7 made an unsolicited bid to buy McDermott for $7 per share. However, the acquisition offer is contingent on McDermot terminating its pending merger with Chicago Bridge & Iron Company. Foresight Autonomous Holdings Ltd (NASDAQ: FRSX) gained 17.21 percent to close at $3.61. Stars Group Inc. (NASDAQ: TSG) rose 14.16 percent to close at $33.45. Stars Group Inc (NASDAQ: TSG) announced plans to acquire Sky Betting & Gaming for $4.7 billion. China Internet Nationwide Financial Services Inc. (NASDAQ: CIFS) shares jumped 12.79 percent to close at $25.58. Nautilus, Inc. (NYSE: NLS) shares gained 11.52 percent to close at $15.00. Nautilus is expected to release Q1 results on May 7, 2018. Craig-Hallum initiated coverage on Nautilus with a Buy rating and a $19.00 price target. Box, Inc. (NYSE: BOX) rose 10.94 percent to close at $22.91. Insmed Incorporated (NASDAQ: INSM) shares rose 10.76 percent to close at $26.05. Credit Suisse upgraded Insmed from Neutral to Outperform. NextDecade Corporation (NASDAQ: NEXT) shares rose 10.02 percent to close at $6.48. Helios and Matheson Analytics Inc. (NASDAQ: HMNY) shares gained 8.37 percent to close at $2.46 on Monday after falling 10.98 percent on Friday. Cambium Learning Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: ABCD) shares gained 7.81 percent to close at $11.11. Vectren Corporation (NYSE: VVC) shares rose 7.26 percent to close at $70.31. CenterPoint Energy, Inc. (NYSE: CNP) announced plans to acquire Vectren for $72 per share in cash. Tennant Company (NYSE: TNC) rose 6.66 percent to close at $74.45 after the company posted upbeat Q1 results and raised its FY18 earnings outlook. Hanesbrands Inc.
  • [By Paul Ausick]

    Helios and Matheson Analytics, Inc. (NASDAQ: HMNY) fell by about 43% Wednesday to post a new 52-week low of $0.82 after closing at $1.45 on Tuesday. The 52-week high is $38.86. Volume of about 37 million was more more than five times the daily average of about 6.8 million. The company said in a Monday SEC filing that it needs to raise more cash to prop up its MoviePass business. Shareholders can’t hit the exits fast enough.

  • [By Paul Ausick]

    Helios and Matheson Analytics, Inc. (NASDAQ: HMNY) fell by nearly 33% Tuesday to post a new 52-week low of $1.43 after closing at $2.11 on Monday. The 52-week high is $38.86. Volume of about 21 million was more than three times the daily average of about 6.6 million. The company said in an SEC filing this morning that it needs to raise more cash to prop up its MoviePass business.

Best Bank Stocks To Own Right Now: Tallgrass Energy Partners, LP(TEP)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By ]

    Cramer was bearish on Melco Resorts (MLCO) , Tallgrass Energy Partners (TEP) , Mallinckrodt (MNK) , Roku (ROKU) and Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) .

    Search Jim Cramer's "Mad Money" trading recommendations using our exclusive "Mad Money" Stock Screener.

  • [By Max Byerly]

    Get a free copy of the Zacks research report on Tallgrass Energy Partners (TEP)

    For more information about research offerings from Zacks Investment Research, visit Zacks.com

  • [By ]

    Tallgrass Energy Partners (TEP) : "That dividend is a red flag. That group has become a house of pain and I'm not going there."

    Mallinckrodt (MNK) : "They had a better-than-expected quarter, but I am worried and I'm staying away."

Monday, May 21, 2018

The Market Completely Misunderstood The Dynavax SD-101 Data

On May 16th, Dynavax Technologies (DVAX) released its abstract for its forthcoming presentation at the June meeting of the American Society for Clinical Oncology, or ASCO. The abstract featured data from its ongoing Phase 1b/2 trial studying a combination therapy of Dynavax��s SD-101, an intratumoral TLR9 agonist, and Merck��s (MRK) anti-PD-1 therapy Keytruda for the treatment of advanced melanoma. The abstract offered incomplete data, featuring just 25 patients, whereas the poster presentation at ASCO will show data from over 50 patients and compares SD-101 at two dose levels.

The abstract highlighting data from the 25 patients showed an overall response rate of 60%, a fair bit below the 100% ORR observed in the smaller patient sample in a Phase 1 human trial. The market reacted negatively to the data, driving the share price down 13%. It has since recovered slightly, but remains well below where it was trading in advance of the abstract��s release.

The market��s reaction is rather odd. It fails to acknowledge that the interim results shown thus far are still positive, if not quite as good as those seen in the tiny Phase 1 study. It also fails to realize that a fuller data set will soon be presented at ASCO and could paint a far clearer, and better, picture. Dynavax remains extremely confident in SD-101��s prospects, and the negative market sentiment appears severely overblown.

Why All the Negativity?

It is true that a 60% ORR is hardly going to shake the Pillars of the Earth. But it is still solid data and further highlights SD-101��s utility as a combination therapy. The negative market reaction is actually quite surprising, considering that Dynavax��s management has been working hard since the eye-popping triumph of the Phase 1 study to manage the market��s expectations. Apparently that did not work out too well, since a 60% ORR sent share crashing.

It probably did not help that Adam Feuerstein, a biotech analyst and Twitter gadfly, took a shot at the SD-101 data abstract, objecting to the exclusion of patients who dropped out of the study from the results:

DVAX reporting SD-101 ORR 60% but that's excluding 5 patients who dropped out early. Add those patients back (which you should do) and ORR drops to 50%. Meh.

Feuerstein is notorious in biotech circles for his frequently off-putting attacks on companies�� data releases. Sometimes he has a point; other times he seems merely to have an ax to grind. In this particular instance, it smells more like the latter. However, it is always worth looking at the full data set and patient population, as Feuerstein insists. While it would result in a 50% result, even that is not a bad outcome.

Making Mountains of Molehills

In my recent article on Dynavax��s Q1 2018 earnings report, I reflected on Dynavax��s own benchmarks of success to carry their SD-101 trials into pivotal Phase 3 studies:

An analyst question during the call asked whether Dynavax had set any efficacy benchmarks to determine whether to advance its various early-stage SD-101 trials into pivotal studies. The company opined that a 50% ORR would be considered an appropriate benchmark. Data from a much larger cohort study will be presented at the ASCO conference in early June; the results will likely do much to color the outlook of the various SD-101 applications.

Dynavax also gave some indication as to how it wants to proceed in late-stage clinical trials for SD-101, with a clear preference for a large partner. The company was not willing, however, to opine on the scope of such a deal, such as whether it would be comprehensive or indication-specific. Such reticence is likely wise, since any negotiations could yield substantial near-term rewards in addition to reduced costs. According to CEO Gray, the company��s current thinking is this: ��Prefer a partnership, but always be ready to walk away.��

50% is not an insanely high bar, but it is reasonable in the context of a study for the treatment of advanced melanoma. The SD-101 and Keytruda combination therapy is not a frontline treatment. It is specifically designed to combat advanced cancers, and such cancers are inherently more difficult to combat even with the best therapies.

The 25 patients included in the abstract were simply the only ones available at the time of abstract submission in February. The full study cohort is more than double the size, and the results could well be different. Given Dynavax highlighted the ASCO presentation on its earnings call in May, months after submitting the abstract, it would seem like a safe surmise that the full results are at least as good as those shared in the abstract.

Don��t Forget the Real Value Driver

It is also worth reflecting on the fact that SD-101 represents only a tiny piece of Dynavax��s value proposition �� albeit a growing one. Rather it is Heplisav-B, the company��s FDA-approved 2-dose best-in-class Hepatitis B vaccine, that will be shaping the near-to-mid-term value of Dynavax. With projected peak annual sales of about $500 million in the United States alone, Heplisav-B promises to be a massively profitable asset.

Heplisav-B commercialization is only just getting underway, so there is still market skittishness about the success of the launch, but Dynavax has the resources necessary to see through the commercial rollout, probably on its current resources.

With $250.8 million in cash and marketable securities at the end of Q1 2018, as well as access to $75 million in non-dilutive debt financing, Dynavax looks well placed to reach its projected profit inflection point at the end of 2019. Indeed, it has enough cash �� or access to cash �� to reach Q2 2020, so its commercialization efforts could fall a two to three quarters behind schedule and still not run the risk of a dilutive capital raise. That does not mean a raise will not happen, but it makes the prospect of it happening anytime soon vanishingly small.

Investor��s-Eye View

The negative reaction to the SD-101 and Keytruda Phase 1/2 trial data is completed out of kilter with reality. The abstract, submitted in February and representing just half of the study population, is an out-of-date snapshot of the data that will be presented on June 4th.

So the market��s skittishness looks fairly silly at this point. If the results are a flop at ASCO, then there will be reason to discount the prospects of SD-101. But at this stage, the therapy remains a very strong candidate. Indeed, even taken at their worst as Mr. Feuerstein would have us do, the results are sufficiently positive even at this stage for the planned pivotal Phase 3 study to commence before the end of 2018.

With Heplisav-B��s commercial rollout also underway, we should expect a heap of good news coming out of Dynavax over the next few quarters. Investors would be wise to not allow noise and fear to cloud the real picture.

Disclosure: I am/we are long DVAX.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

SeekingAlpha

Saturday, May 19, 2018

3 Top Biotech Stocks to Buy Right Now

Human understanding of biology is progressing like never before. Those advancements could ultimately help millions of humans live longer, better lives. For investors, the companies that are helping to move the ball forward could create vast wealth for their shareholders.�

With that in mind, we asked a team of Motley Fool investors to highlight a biotech stock that they think is a strong buy right now. Here's why they picked Exelixis (NASDAQ:EXEL), Celgene (NASDAQ:CELG), and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:IONS).�

Dollar bills rolled up in pill bottles being manufactured.

Image source: Getty Images.

This growth and value biotech is the perfect bad-news buy

Sean Williams (Exelixis): Feel free to call me a "homer" or biased since it currently resides in my portfolio, but I simply won't stop beating the drum on cancer-drug developer Exelixis as long as it sits well below $30 a share.

Earlier this month, Exelixis was clobbered after announcing that a partnered phase 3 trial known as IMblaze, which combined its Food and Drug Administration-approved drug Cotellic with Roche's cancer immunotherapy Tecentriq, failed to improve overall survival in patients with difficult-to-treat, advanced or metastatic colorectal cancer. Considering how impressive Exelixis's run higher has been, failures have been few and far between.�

However, it's worth pointing out that Cotellic has been a relative non-factor for Exelixis. Sure, positive pivotal-stage results would have been great, and it would have given the company another shared source of revenue. But at the end of the day, the advancement of Cabometyx is what matters, and a setback in Cotellic can be easily overlooked.

In the company's first-quarter operating results, Cabometyx generated $134.3 million in sales, which was practically double the $68.9 million registered in the year-ago quarter. Not only is the company seeing solid organic growth in second-line and later renal cell carcinoma (RCC) patients, but it's benefited from the December 2017 label expansion into first-line RCC patients.�

Let's also remember that Cabometyx dazzled in the late-stage Celestial study for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma. The trial was actually stopped early after the drug demonstrated an overall survival of 10.2 months, compared to just 8 months for patients given the placebo. All key secondary endpoints were met as well, with progression-free survival and objective response rates significantly higher in the Cabometyx arm. A label expansion seems pretty likely at this point.�

What we're left with is a company that's quickly barreling toward $1 billion in annual sales, and that could generate more than $2 in annual EPS by 2022. Wall Street also expects a compound annual sales growth rate of 30% through 2021. Long story short, we're talking about a growth and value play in the biotech sector all nicely wrapped up into one stock. Needless to say, this shareholder has no intentions of selling, and he'd suggest you give Exelixis another look right now.

A prime comeback candidate

Keith Speights�(Celgene): How would you like a biotech stock that trades at less than eight times expected earnings but should be able to increase earnings by nearly 20% annually over the next few years? For most investors, that stock would sound like a great deal. The good news is that there's a stock that fits the bill: Celgene.

It's definitely been a rough stretch for Celgene over the last year. The big biotech experienced a major late-stage clinical setback for a once-promising Crohn's disease drug. It fumbled the FDA submission of one of its top pipeline prospects, multiple sclerosis drug ozanimod. And Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar recently singled out Celgene's blood cancer drug Revlimid as an example of why Medicare's drug costs are rising.

Still, there's an awful lot to like about Celgene. The company has two other blockbusters besides Revlimid that are enjoying strong sales growth -- Pomalyst and Otezla. Cancer drug Abraxane should be close to the $1 billion annual sales mark this year.�

But what I really like about Celgene is its pipeline. The company completed two acquisitions earlier this year, landing myelofibrosis drug fedratinib and�non-Hodgkin lymphoma drug JCAR017. Both of the drugs hold the potential to become blockbusters for Celgene. The biotech expects to submit ozanimod for approval again in early 2019. And it has plenty of other promising experimental drugs in its�pipeline, including bb2121 and luspatercept.

A stock with Celgene's growth prospects can only be beaten down for so long. I see this biotech as a prime comeback candidate.�

Betting on a platform

Brian Feroldi�(Ionis Pharmaceuticals): Scores of biotech companies have bet their future on the success of a single drug. That can work out extremely well for shareholders if the company churns out a winner. However, given the long odds of success, more often than not those one drug biotechs wind up destroying shareholder value. That's why I prefer to put my support behind biotech companies that are building�drug discovery platforms instead of just praying that a single drug works out.�If you agree with that strategy then you should get to know Ionis Pharmaceuticals.

Ionis has been churning out new compounds for years thanks to its innovative�antisense technology. In a nutshell,�this drug discovery platform works by targeting RNA that is causing problems in the body and then turns them off. This results in less prevalence of the troublesome RNA and can lead to an improved health outcome for patients.

What's wonderful about antisense is that it can be used to quickly churn out new drugs that treat a wide range of diseases. Ionis' pipeline is literally packed with dozens of compounds that could be used to treat cancer, neurological disorders, renal diseases, and more.

I also like that Ionis has proven that its�antisense technology is the real deal. The company has already crossed the finish line with two drugs,�Spinraza, which is marketed by Biogen, and Kynamro, which is marketed by Kastle Therapeutics. Two other drugs that are used to treat cardiovascular disease are currently pending FDA approval, too.

Overall, an investment in Ionis isn't just a bet on the success or failure of any specific drug. It's a bet on the company's antisense platform. Given the company's history of using its platform to create value for shareholders, that's a bet that I think is worth making.